Thursday, February 7, 2008

Starting with Romney

Welcome to my blog, where I plan to talk about...basically a lot of different things. If I think it's relevant and worth talking about, you'll find it here.

So I'll christen my blog by talking about the important development coming out of the Republican Party, which is Mitt Romney's announcement that he will no longer seek the nomination for president in November's election. I have to say that I'm quite pleased with this decision from Gov. Romney. I was not a fan of his inability to take a position, so I did not wish to vote for him in November. But I did gain a lot of respect for Gov. Romney because he recognized that a fragmented Republican Party will do nothing to help the party's chances in the election.

That now leaves John McCain and Mike Huckabee as the only legitimate candidates remaining in this race. Yes, I can hear the Internet crowd screaming that, technically, Ron Paul is still in the race, but with 14 delegates and no states won, he has no chance at winning the nomination. Deal with it.

Back to Sen. McCain and Gov. Huckabee. Sen. McCain has won 707 delegates according to an Associated Press story today. Gov. Huckabee holds 195 delegates in his corner, and Gov. Romney had 294. Gov. Romney's delegates are a wild card here, so I'll come back to them. Of the remaining states, Sen. McCain is likely to win in Wisconsin, Washington, the District of Columbia, Maryland, Vermont, Rhode Island and Oregon. The Arizona senator does very well in reliably Democratic states, which all of these states and DC are. He is also in good shape in Pennsylvania, a solidly blue state with many Republicans between its cities, New Mexico, a red state with a fair amount of Democrats and Ohio, which is a swing state every election.

If he wins every delegate in those states, Sen. McCain would sit at 1087 delegates, leaving him 104 delegates short of the required 1191. The other states to be decided are Kansas, Louisiana, Virginia, Texas, Mississippi, Indiana, North Carolina, Nebraska, Kentucky, Idaho and South Dakota, all solidly red states. Gov. Huckabee has a slim chance to catch Sen. McCain here. But Sen. McCain has already proven by winning South Carolina that he can take conservative states. So Gov. Huckabee's chances are slim, even if all of Gov. Romney's delegates pledge themselves to him. In fact, that is likely the only way Gov. Huckabee has any chance unless something goes horribly wrong for Sen. McCain.

So as much as I like Gov. Huckabee, the best thing for him to do is to renege on his committment to answer the bell in every round and become a candidate for vice president. He has siphoned enough votes from Gov. Romney to hand Sen. McCain the nomination, and it is almost impossible to forsee a scenario where he wins the nomination. Therefore, he would be doing himself and his party more harm than good by staying in the race.

Gov. Romney did the right thing today by falling on the sword for the GOP. It is time for Gov. Huckabee to do the same. It was time for Ron Paul to do that long ago. I'm on record as supporting McCain/Huckabee in 2008.

My time is up. You've all been great. Enjoy Amanda Marshall.

1 comment:

Dan Angell said...

Tell me what I'm doing well, what I'm not doing well, please. I'd love to hear it.